What to Expect in 2026

2025 was a transformative year for the global space industry. Around the world, public and private capital came together with the hope of achieving bold goals before the end of the decade.

2026 will be the year in which many of these long-term plans (hopefully) take first flight. Here’s a look at some of the highlights we can expect to see in the year ahead.

Moonward bound: Of all the launches on the agenda this year, one is already guaranteed to make the history books: Artemis II.

In what will be humanity’s first attempt to send humans beyond LEO since 1972, NASA’s next lunar mission will bring four astronauts on a ~10 day flight around the Moon. If all goes well, the flight will set the stage for a crewed landing as early as 2028.

NASA officials confirmed last week that the rollout of the SLS rocket would take place in the first half of January, and the rocket could launch as early as Feb. 6, with additional launch opportunities continuing throughout the spring.

But the Moon can expect more action this year than the single flyby. Uncrewed landers attempting a lunar visit this year include:

• Blue Origin’s Blue Moon Mark 1 Pathfinder mission is expected to fly as early as Q1, on a New Glenn rocket.
• Astrobotic Technology’s Griffin-1 lander is targeting a launch in July.
• China’s Chang’e-7 mission to the lunar south pole is aiming to launch in August.
• Firefly’s Blue Ghost Mission 2 lander is aiming to fly before the end of this year.  
• Intuitive Machines’ IM-3 mission is also expected to launch this year.

Out of this world: SpaceX is still dominating the global launch sector. The company broke its previous record for annual launches with 165 flights in 2025—accounting for about 85% of all US launches last year. This year, the company is poised to further grow its offering.

This month, SpaceX plans to launch its first Twilight rideshare mission, bringing payloads to the dawn-dusk orbit.

As for Starship, 2026 stands to be the year that development compounds. SpaceX is building multiple launch sites to support future Starship flights, as well as production “Giga Bays” to support Starship Block 4, with its 80 m booster. Flight tests this year are expected to focus on refueling on orbit for the first time. There’s even a 50/50 chance that Starship can make a Martian attempt in 2026, Elon Musk said in a speech in May.

However, SpaceX’s pseudo-monopoly on the launch sector may not be as secure as it once was, as many new rockets are planning to make their first orbital attempts in ’26.

In the US, new launchers with aspirations for inaugural lift-offs this year include Rocket Lab’s Neutron rocket, Astra’s Rocket 4, Relativity Space’s Terran R, and Firefly Aerospace’s Eclipse. Stoke Space is also working to complete its facilities at Cape Canaveral’s LC-14 to support future launches of its Nova rocket.

International departures: Canada is continuing to develop sovereign launch, with NordSpace expecting to fly its delayed Taiga suborbital demonstrator from Newfoundland and Labrador in Q1 2026. Maritime Launch Services had a successful suborbital demonstration launch with T-Minus Engineering’s Barracuda vehicle from Nova Scotia in late November, and received fresh government and industry support and financing, as it pushes for orbital launch in the near future.

In Europe, all five of the European Launcher Challenge finalists are preparing to hold launch tests of their rockets this year. Also planning debut flights are Arianespace’s Ariane 64 heavy lift rocket, Orbex’s Prime vehicle, and ESA’s Themis demonstrator.

In India, Skyroot Aerospace is aiming to fly the first flight of its Vikram-1 rocket early this year, while in Japan, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries is aiming to hold tests of its H3-30 rocket in preparation for a possible flight this year.

In Russia, Roscosmos delayed the first launch of its Soyuz-5 rocket in December to perform additional testing. While the agency hasn’t released a new launch date, the rocket could fly this year.

China also has a multitude of launchers aiming to make their first trips past the Kármán line this year, including CAS Space’s Kinetica-2, Space Pioneer’s Tianlong-3, Deep Blue Aerospace’s Nebula 1, Orienspace’s Gravity-2, Galactic Energy’s Pallas-1, iSpace’s Hyperbola-3 and CASC’s Long March-10A.

Techleaps: Launch isn’t the only place in the space sector that’s going to get busier this year. Elsewhere in the industry, new organizations are planning to demonstrate technologies and fly hardware for the first time in an effort to make space more accessible. These new technologies include:

• ISRO’s Gaganyaan spacecraft, which has three uncrewed test flights scheduled this year, possibly culminating in a crewed flight as early as 2027.
• Vast’s Haven-1 commercial space station is targeting to launch no earlier than May.
• Orbit Fab’s first in-orbit refueling demonstration is expected to launch this year.
• Multiple reentry companies are also planning to fly their first missions in 2026, setting up a regular return lane for in-space manufacturing, pharmaceutical, and hypersonic testing capabilities.

Business as usual: While the year is expected to include more than a handful of firsts, many stories we’re looking forward to covering at Payload are holdovers from a busy 2025.

Last year was filled with stories highlighting the growing competition in the world of satcom. This trend isn’t stopping anytime soon. Amazon Leo has a mid-year FCC deadline to grow its constellation to ~1,600 sats, and AST SpaceMobile has plans to deploy 45 to 60 sats. Both will aim to provide a competitor to Starlink for the first time. 

Elsewhere in the industry, new technologies like laser and quantum communications are expected to become more accessible, potentially changing the game for humanity’s future of connectivity. 

In Europe, the push to build out sovereign constellations will continue. SpaceRISE, the consortium in charge of the region’s IRIS² network, is expected to decide on a manufacturer for the constellation this year—after narrowing the field to two in August. The region will also continue to hone in on the particulars of its proposed EU Space Act, and begin to define the specifics of the European Space Shield, which was first proposed in October.