Russia turns to attrition one month into Ukraine war

Russia’s forces in Ukraine appear to be turning to a war of attrition with devastating effect on civilians, after failing to secure hoped-for swift gains when President Vladimir Putin launched the invasion one month ago.

The US government says recent days have brought more intense aerial and naval bombardment as Ukrainian resistance holds up the invaders’ advance on land.

Attacking forces remain 15 kilometres (10 miles) from the Ukrainian capital Kyiv to the north-west and 30 kilometres away to the east, able only to bombard it from a distance.

While US President Joe Biden has said Putin’s “back is against the wall in Ukraine”, US Defense Department spokesman John Kirby told CNN Tuesday that Ukrainian forces were now even “going after Russians” who were losing morale as food and fuel run out.

Capturing Kyiv had appeared the Russians’ top target as they entered the country on February 24, hoping to topple President Volodymyr Zelensky’s administration.

But despite mobilising a force of between 150,000 and 200,000 troops, Moscow failed to anticipate anything other than weak resistance — likely owing to Russian intelligence failures — and made sloppy logistical preparations.

Even now, Russia does not have complete control of the skies over Ukraine, complicating their entire offensive.

“The Russian lack a real command and control policy,” a former top French military officer told AFP, pointing to lack of coordination between ground and air forces and the strikes’ lack of precision.

– Siege warfare –

The number of soldiers killed cannot be verified, although the Pentagon estimates as many as 7,000 Russian dead in the first month according to the New York Times.

That would amount to more losses than the US suffered in the years-long occupations of Iraq and Afghanistan combined.

“Putin’s offensive is stuck despite all the destruction that it is bringing day after day,” German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said Wednesday.

For its part, Kyiv acknowledged 1,300 troops killed in action on March 12 — likely well below the real figure according to observers.

With their forces bogged down, the Russians have transformed their offensive into a string of sieges apparently aimed at wearing down and demoralising the Ukrainian population.

Around 10 million people have left their homes, while the UN human rights chief says almost 3.6 million have quit the country.

“The more the Russian infantry struggles, the higher the army climbs up the scale of brutality and the disproportionate use of air power,” a European source close to NATO told AFP.

“Putin needs a deal, so he needs victories.”

Throughout the one-month offensive, Russia has only captured one major urban centre — Kherson in south Ukraine. Mariupol to the east remains subjected to a siege that has caused international outrage.

Uncaptured northern cities like Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest urban centre, are under constant bombardment, while pressure is also growing on those in the south and east.

Mykolaiv, which blocks the way along the Black Sea coast towards Odessa, is also under artillery fire.

– Devastation –

But Russia has yet to put much emphasis on diplomatic efforts and analysts warn that even if a ceasefire were agreed it could just allow Moscow to buy time and rebuild its forces.

More than 200,000 people are stuck in Mariupol, reduced in large part to corpse-strewn ruins and cut off from necessities like food, water, electricity and heat.

Russia’s determination to capture the port city is in proportion to its strategic worth, potentially linking annexed Crimea by land with the pro-Russian separatist territories of the Donbas.

A firmer grasp on Ukraine’s east could ultimately allow the invaders to encircle the Ukrainian defenders fighting there.

“The next chapter in this war could prove even uglier as it will likely turn into a war of attrition, with greater bombardment of civilian areas,” Michael Kofman of the US-based CNA think-tank wrote on Twitter.

“Russian forces will probably try to compensate for poor performance by inflicting greater destruction.”

If no negotiated settlement arrives, “attrition war is the most likely path,” William Alberque of the International Institute for Strategic Studies told AFP.

He warned against pushing Kyiv into accepting a ceasefire at any cost.

“The worst is, (Westerners’) desire to stop the suffering of Ukrainian people could help the Russians. They rely on our desire to see peace as an opportunity,” Alberque said.

“They are going to use a ceasefire to build up forces,” he warned.

Battleground Ukraine: Day 28 of Russia’s invasion
Paris (AFP) March 23, 2022 –
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was largely stalled on the 28th day of the assault Wednesday, with no major advances and Ukrainian forces even able to counterattack in places.

Western sources said it was still possible that Russian forces could regroup to make new assaults despite what appears to be a string of military setbacks.

Here is a summary of the situation on the ground, based on statements from both sides, Western defence and intelligence sources, and international organisations.

– The east –

There was little movement around the mostly encircled city of Kharkiv which Russia has bombed heavily after attempts to capture it were thwarted.

That city would be a key link in the chain if Russia aims — as many analysts believe — to encircle Ukrainian forces in the country’s east.

The city of Sumy further to the north and close to the Russian border is also encircled.

– Kyiv and the north –

Russians have been reinforcing their positions around the capital, which has not yet been fully surrounded and has been subjected to heavy bombardment on occasion.

There were also reports of Ukrainian forces launching counterattacks against Russian forces on the outskirts of the city.

The British defence ministry said the battlefield across northern Ukraine is “largely static” with Russian forces “likely conducting a period of reorganisation before resuming large-scale offensive operations.”

Chernihiv to the east of the capital is meanwhile encircled by Russian troops.

– The south –

Russia continued its siege of the port city of Mariupol, a key Russian target to link up the annexed Crimea and separatist-controlled Donbas regions.

President Volodymyr Zelensky said the city still has nearly 100,000 people living in inhumane conditions.

A US defense official said Russian troops had been seen inside Mariupol but the “Ukrainians are fighting very hard to keep Mariupol from falling”.

Russian forces earlier in the campaign took the city of Kherson just north of Crimea, the only major city they have captured so far.

Although Russian troops are trying to push west along Ukraine’s Black Sea coast towards Odessa, they have so far failed to encircle the city of Mykolayiv that stands in the way.

There is Russian naval activity in the Black Sea off Odessa but this does not mean that an amphibious assault on the city is imminent, according to the US Defense Department.

– The west and centre –

After deadly airstrikes in Ukraine’s west last week, there have been no reports of significant military action in the region or around Dnipro.

The west of Ukraine, including the region’s main city of Lviv, is still far from the ground offensive but has been the target of air strikes.

– Casualties –

According to the office for the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, at least 953 civilians have been confirmed killed in Ukraine, including 78 children. It warns this is likely an underestimate.

Moscow has given no toll for casualties among its armed forces since announcing on March 2 that 498 troops had been killed.

Ukraine says around 15,000 Russian soldiers have been killed. Western sources generally give a lower figure but still numbering several thousand.

Kyiv has also not given an update on the number of Ukrainian soldiers killed since Zelensky announced a week ago that around 1,300 were dead.

– Refugees –

The war has sparked Europe’s worst refugee crisis since World War II, according to the UN refugee agency.

More than 3.6 million refugees have fled Ukraine since the Russian invasion, with more than two million of them heading to neighbouring Poland, according to the UN.

A total of 10 million are believed to have fled their homes, according to the world body, representing over a quarter of the population in regions under government control.

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Ukrainian forces ‘going after’ Russians: Day 27 of Russia’s invasion

Washington (AFP) March 22, 2022

Ukraine forces have reversed the battlefield momentum against invading Russians in some areas to reclaim ground in recent days, the Pentagon said Tuesday.

The Ukrainians are “in places and at times going on an offensive,” particularly in the south of the country, US Defense Department spokesman John Kirby told CNN.

“They are going after Russians and pushing them out of places where the Russians have been in the past,” he said, particularly in Mykolaiv.

“We have seen this now increase over th … read more